Recortes de reflexiones sobre el mundo de los mercados y el dinero

Una obviedad, pero también una de las mejores frases porque al final los inversores tienden a pensar todo lo contrario, que los mercados alcistas nacen en el optimismo y los bajitas en el punto de mayor miedo.

Una de mis citas favoritas, aplicable a todos los campos de la vida.

“Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored by many. Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your religious books. Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders. Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations. But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with reason and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all, then accept it and live up to it.”

Buda

Kostolany sobre los gurús del crash:

Los gurús bajistas [que predicen crashes] deberían admitir sus errores de una vez por todas y comportarse como lo hizo mi hermano una vez en Budapest. En un gran baile privado le dijo a la anfitriona: "¿Ve usted aquel horrible enano con hidrocefalia?"

La respuesta de la señora fue: "Ese es mi hijo".

Mi hermano empalideció y respondió lo único sensato que podía responder: "Querida señora, un error así no se puede rectificar, me voy".

Y se fue.

"El simple hecho de que las masas posean en común cualidades ordinarias explica por qué nunca pueden ejecutar actos que demandan un alto nivel de inteligencia. Las decisiones relativas a cuestiones de interés general son puestas ante una asamblea de personas distinguidas, pero estos especialistas en diferentes aspectos de la vida resultan ser incapaces de tomar decisiones superiores a las que hubiera tomado un montón de imbéciles."

Gustave Le Bon

Sobre los analistas y los incentivos que fuerzan el comportamiento gregario:

What I do think helps explain why analysts are sometimes slow to revise down estimates, is that sell-side Wall Street analysts sometimes fall victim to group-think, where conforming their own projections to be in-line with average expectations, is oftentimes the safest route to take. Analysts do not benefit or get additional rewards (like buy-side mutual funds and hedge funds do) if they take the risk of going against the norm (they may get reputational benefits, but probably not enough to offset the risk of possibly losing their clients or their jobs if they're wrong). Also, they will not get penalized or criticized too much (little downside risk), when the entire industry is wrong and the entire industry over-projected earnings. Wall Street analysts are rational human beings just like anybody else; they will weigh their risk/reward ratio and will most likely take the path of least risk (if the reward does not justify the additional risk). In this case, the path of least risk is to remain with the herd or within the consensus range, and as Animal Planet taught us, herds tend to move slower than an individual (this is not to suggest analysts are herds, I use to work in investment banking on the advisory side, so I guess I too would be part of that herd).

Michael Fu