Update: Sector inmobiliario EEUU

18 de noviembre, 2012 0
Inversor particular. Profesor en el Centro de Estudios OMMA y el Título de Experto en Bolsa y Mercados de la Universidad de Alicante. Director... [+ info]
Inversor particular. Profesor en el Centro de Estudios... [+ info]

Contexto

http://www.ferrerinvest.com/28/post/2012/07/venga-un-poco-de-optimismo-sobre-estados-unidos-sector-inmobiliario-i.html

http://www.ferrerinvest.com/28/post/2012/09/cmo-aprovecharse-de-la-recuperacin-del-sector-inmobiliario-usa.html

http://www.ferrerinvest.com/1/post/2012/10/diferentes-maneras-para-exponerse-al-sector-inmobiliario.html 

perspectiva negativa: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NfkOui3EVM&feature=relmfu 

Household formation http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204707104578095223920995426.html?mod=wsj_share_tweet 

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-on-household-formation-2012-11


Nuevos datos, 19 noviembre

Indice NAHB

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) increased 5 points in November to 46. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/11/nahb-builder-confidence-increases-in.html#S6d6TRALmHg5Yzyw.99 

Home sales

Galería gráficos: http://www.crgraphs.com/2011/10/housing-graphs.html

Fenómeno regional?

Datos ventas lunes: Regionally, only the Northeast saw lower sales in October, with a decline of 1.7%, due, in part to Hurricane Sandy, which hit the area late in the month

Completo análisis datos lunes: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/11/existing-home-sales-solid-report.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/039fbcb8-3259-11e2-916a-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2ChKdmjUK

The national median existing home price was $178,600 last month, up 11.1 per cent from October 2011 as fewer people sold their homes under distressed conditions over the course of the year.

---Negative Equity, informe Zillowhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1016621-with-housing-demand-rebounding-negative-equity-now-supports-housing-values , http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/11/zillow-13-million-fewer-us-homeowners.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29 


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MUY BUENO: Good news is bad for stocks.. http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/11/12/housing-builders-stocks/

expectativas... "Housing recovery isn't over (at all), it's just everyone knows we are on a recovery"

Por valoración y múltiplos no están baratas... por eso inversores son más exigentes con resultados...


http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/49822678 

How 'Fiscal Cliff' Could Affect Mortgage Interest Deduction


Escépticos vs Optimistas: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204789304578084751497209028.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11748022/1/homebuilders-are-overvalued-and-overbought.html


Buffett: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/how-to-follow-buffetts-bet-on-us-housing-recovery/article5132919/

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DATOS MARTES 20

Housing starts and building permits

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/11/20/u-s-housing-starts-hit-four-year-high/

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/11/housing-starts-increased-to-894.html


Bernanke martes 20: sobre el obstáculo más importante a la recuperación. 

Bernanke ve señales de recuperación pero también obstáculos: condiciones a la concesión de créditos demasiado restrictiva. Péndulo.

http://www.businessinsider.com/bernanke-on-mortgage-lending-standards-2012-11


Perpsectiva negativa sobre Housing: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-house-is-still-a-dump-2012-11

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Calculated Risk Blog

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Más gráficos: http://www.crgraphs.com/2011/10/housing-graphs.html

IMPACTO DEL HOUSING EN LA ECONOMÍA

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Twitter@pawelmorski reprises this chart from DB's Torsten Slok, comparing NAHB homebuilder sentiment with Residential Construction's contribution to GDP (with a 12-month lag). 

Given the surge in sentiment, if the pattern continues, espect to see homebuilding make a monster contribution to the economy. 


Says Deutsche Bank's Joe Lavogna, in regards to homebuilding...

The year-to-date contribution to real GDP has been 30 bps per quarter. This should increase to 60 bps per quarter next year given the scenario highlighted above. Additionally, higher consumption of housing-related services coupled with the indirect effects from home price appreciation (i.e., wealth effects) could easily raise the housing contribution to one full percentage point. In short, housing could provide a meaningful (and critical) lift to overall economic activity at a time when other growth drivers, like exports, are slowing. 

Housing puede llegar a contribuir un 1% del PIB. Pero, qué va a alimentar esto? Factores demográficos.

INTERESANTES GRAFICOS Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-on-household-formation-2012-11#ixzz2CnIdAk3L

Household formation http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204707104578095223920995426.html?mod=wsj_share_tweet 


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