La caída de la banca europea ¿pronostica recesión inminente?

Me meto en el hilo aunque no soy especialista ... Llendo directo a la pregunta planteada. 

Creo que mas alla de graficos e indicadores. Estaria interezante reflexionar desde uno mismo. Si cae la banca Europea y con el contexto de lo sucedido con el Brexit, que haria uno.

Yo agarraria mis dolares (euros en su caso), me voy a la cama y me pongo en posición fetal agarrandolos lo mas fuerte que pueda.

Saludos !

En la conferencia de ayer día 8 Draghi habló de nuevo de la banca, esta vez para decir que el crédito sigue creciendo y que en realidad el net interest income de la banca permanece estable.

Adjunto un artículo del Wall Street Journal que habla del giro del Banco [central] de Japón sobre los tipos de interés negativos y es que en apenas una semana el giro ha sido tremendo. En negrita resalto lo que me parece más interesante:

TOKYO—Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday acknowledged the downsides of his negative-interest-rate policy, suggesting caution about further reductions.

Coming amid a global debate about the efficacy of extreme monetary easing, Mr. Kuroda’s unusual emphasis on the potential damage from negative rates pointed to a growing sense even among backers that easing can go too far.

The BOJ governor, speaking at a seminar in Tokyo, said negative rates particularly hit the profit of financial institutions, while low long-term yields hurt some other businesses by forcing them to put aside more money for long-term pension obligations.

The central bank must consider “that such developments can affect people’s confidence by causing concerns over the sustainability of the financial function in a broad sense, thereby negatively affecting economic activity,” Mr. Kuroda said.

[...]

In February, the BOJ began applying a rate of minus 0.1% on certain deposits held by commercial banks after the BOJ’s purchases of Japanese government bonds—its main tool to fight deflation—began to run out of room. Yields on government bonds of up to 40 years fell sharply in the following months.

But capital investment and consumer spending failed to take off. Core consumer prices, including energy, fell for the fifth straight month in July, according to government data. And leading bankers criticized the policy, saying it would hit their profit, make lending harder and add to uncertainty—an argument that Mr. Kuroda effectively conceded on Monday.

The speech suggested he is “basically cautious” about lowering the negative rate further, unless a sharp rise in the yen threatens exports, said Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities.

Mr. Kuroda was more optimistic about negative rate effects when he spoke just over a week ago during the Federal Reserve’s annual meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyo.

Still, Mr. Kuroda’s speech also included his customary declarations that he would do whatever it took to achieve his 2% inflation target. He said he would take additional action if necessary and said there would be “enormous” benefits from 2% inflation. “There may be a situation where drastic measures are warranted even though they could entail costs,” he said.

He reiterated that the BOJ had “ample room” to expand its target for raising the monetary base, currently at ¥80 trillion ($770 billion) a year, and could try “other new ideas.”

Norinchukin Research Institute chief economist Takeshi Minami said he suspected that Mr. Kuroda, by frankly speaking of policy side effects, might be trying to win over the public before delivering further easing. “He probably wanted to say that negative rates entail costs but they will give you greater benefits,” Mr. Minami said.

Mr. Kuroda’s words are under close scrutiny from investors waiting for the results of the central bank’s “comprehensive assessment” of its 3½-year campaign to end deflation. The BOJ announced the assessment in July and said it would be released at the end of the BOJ’s Sept. 20-21 policy meeting.

La tasa de cambio trimestral del crédito a los hogares y las entidades no financieras. El dato clave a seguir ya que es al que hace referencia el gráfico con el que inicié este hilo.

Pues el giro de retórica de Kuroda se ha materializado en un cambio de política monetaria. Por un lado el Banco de Japón actuará directamente para 'influir' en la curva de tipos y ha cambiado su retórica a "seguiremos tomando medidas hasta que la inflación repunte".

Declaración completa.

Los préstamos a entidades no financieras siguió creciendo en agosto al 1.9%

Ahora bien, lo usual es mirarlo trimestralmente porque en términos anuales es una info retrasada si uno quiere obtener información sobre el ciclo.

Visto así sigue en positivo aunque declinando un poco o frenándose. Nada particular por el momento.

Por países España e Italia frío frío y Francia fresquito.