No puedo resistir la tentación de reproducir la entrevista a Tyler Cowen sobre Grecia. Pero antes, para comparar, expongo la opinión oficial de la UE y el FMI:
The European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) released a joint statement on Thursday on the Greek program and debt sustainability:
“The institutions and the Greek authorities have made important progress on a policy package that could pave the way for discussions on debt sustainability and the conclusion of the first review of the third Greek program. All institutions will continue to work from headquarters with the authorities and member-states on the final elements of an overall policy package.
Ahora Tyler Cowen (resumen):
Asked about what has gone wrong with Greece’s bailouts, Professor Cowen commented that “the bailout programs were never going to work in the first place. The debt is too high and is more of a political weapon than anything which can be paid back. And the Greek economy requires very serious structural reform, more than the Greek people seem to wish to accept. That is two impossibilities in the situation right there, and then on top of that we have a dysfunctional EU, slow global growth across the board, and the refugee crisis. In that setting, can one expect anything other than failure?”
And:
“It’s all a big bargaining game, and at the end of the day pulling the plug will have to be up to the Greeks. Everyone’s expectations are unrealistic, and everyone knows that, including the IMF and EU and many others too. But who will pull the plug? Tsipras almost did, and then backed away. In my view, sooner or later Greece will leave this arrangement because it simply isn’t workable. I don’t look forward to the resulting economic carnage.”
Asked why he thinks Europe has been unwilling to consider a debt-write off for Greece, Cowen said that “because Italy above all would be next in line, but of course Spain too and others as well.”
Here is the conclusion:
Lastly, when I asked Tyler Cowen what policies he would recommend for Greece so the country can re-boost its economy and put people back to work, [he] said this:
“Do you know the old punchline? “Well, I wouldn’t start from here.” Greece has been deindustrializing for a long time, there isn’t enough to take the place of manufacturing, and tourism just isn’t enough. The interest groups seem intractable. I’d like to see Greece have much more of a free market economy, but that’s begging the question, isn’t it? And there is the ongoing distraction and stress of having to renegotiate the agreements every few years. By the way, I can’t bench press 600 pounds.”
The full interview is here.
Añado, que en la entrevista original, preguntado por ié solucion ve para las deudas en Europa:
In terms of what should be done about the extremely high levels of sovereign debt that many eurozone countries carry, Professor Cowen said this: “I’d like to see the European Central bank monetize a big chunk of the Eurozone debt, though at this point that doesn’t seem so likely.”
