La mejor inversión que podemos hacer siempre será en nosotros mismos, en lograr acumular el capital suficiente para cumplir nuestros sueños, como una jubilación tranquila, una casa, un viaje, la educación de nuestros hijos en una universidad prestigiosa. Para conseguir esto, una planificación financiera adecuada sugiere que, tras trabajar duro durante el mes, antes de pagar todos nuestros compromisos, debemos nosotros mismos por el trabajo realizado. El pago mensual a cada uno de nosotros no debería ser menor al 10-15% de nuestros ingresos.
Una vez determinada la cantidad mensual que podemos destinar a nuestra inversión personal, debemos determinar a qué plazo vamos a necesitar el capital que acumulamos. No es igual acumular capital para la compra de un coche dentro de tres años, que para la jubilación dentro de treinta años. A plazos más cortos, yo recomiendo a mis clientes la inversión en instrumentos que sobreponderen la renta fija sobre la renta variable. Para plazos más largos, en cambio, exposición casi total a la renta variable. Una de las técnicas que utilizo, para los plazos más largos, es la inversión con lo que yo llamo el "Dollar cost average mejorado".
El Dollar Cost Average (o Euro, Peso, etc., o la moneda que utilicen), consiste en la inversión de la misma cantidad mensual en un instrumento de inversión determinado. Para hacer más sencillo el ejemplo que voy a poner, voy a utilizar el ETF sobre el SP500, el SPY y en los últimos 5 años. El gráfico mensual del SP500 es el siguiente:
Para hacer el ejemplo sobre el sistema de inversión mensual más sencillo, la cantidad que se invierte mensualmente es de 1.000 dólares y he tomado el cierre del SPY del primer día de mes:
Mes | Instr. | Fecha | Precio | Inversión | Compra | Cartera | Valor inversión |
1 | SPY.N | 03/03/2008 | 133.5 | 1000 | 7.49 | 7.49 | $1,000.00 |
2 | SPY.N | 01/04/2008 | 136.61 | 1000 | 7.32 | 14.81 | $2,023.30 |
3 | SPY.N | 01/05/2008 | 141.12 | 1000 | 7.09 | 21.90 | $3,090.09 |
4 | SPY.N | 02/06/2008 | 138.9 | 1000 | 7.20 | 29.10 | $4,041.48 |
5 | SPY.N | 01/07/2008 | 128.38 | 1000 | 7.79 | 36.89 | $4,735.39 |
6 | SPY.N | 01/08/2008 | 126.16 | 1000 | 7.93 | 44.81 | $5,653.50 |
7 | SPY.N | 01/09/2008 | 128.79 | 1000 | 7.76 | 52.58 | $6,771.36 |
8 | SPY.N | 01/10/2008 | 116.06 | 1000 | 8.62 | 61.19 | $7,102.06 |
9 | SPY.N | 03/11/2008 | 97.11 | 1000 | 10.30 | 71.49 | $6,942.45 |
10 | SPY.N | 01/12/2008 | 82.11 | 1000 | 12.18 | 83.67 | $6,870.09 |
11 | SPY.N | 01/01/2009 | 90.24 | 1000 | 11.08 | 94.75 | $8,550.32 |
12 | SPY.N | 02/02/2009 | 82.58 | 1000 | 12.11 | 106.86 | $8,824.53 |
13 | SPY.N | 02/03/2009 | 70.6 | 1000 | 14.16 | 121.02 | $8,544.34 |
14 | SPY.N | 01/04/2009 | 81.06 | 1000 | 12.34 | 133.36 | $10,810.26 |
15 | SPY.N | 01/05/2009 | 87.89 | 1000 | 11.38 | 144.74 | $12,721.12 |
16 | SPY.N | 01/06/2009 | 94.77 | 1000 | 10.55 | 155.29 | $14,716.92 |
17 | SPY.N | 01/07/2009 | 92.33 | 1000 | 10.83 | 166.12 | $15,338.01 |
18 | SPY.N | 03/08/2009 | 100.44 | 1000 | 9.96 | 176.08 | $17,685.26 |
19 | SPY.N | 01/09/2009 | 100.2 | 1000 | 9.98 | 186.06 | $18,643.00 |
20 | SPY.N | 01/10/2009 | 103 | 1000 | 9.71 | 195.77 | $20,163.96 |
21 | SPY.N | 02/11/2009 | 104.32 | 1000 | 9.59 | 205.35 | $21,422.38 |
22 | SPY.N | 01/12/2009 | 111.3 | 1000 | 8.98 | 214.34 | $23,855.74 |
23 | SPY.N | 01/01/2010 | 111.44 | 1000 | 8.97 | 223.31 | $24,885.74 |
24 | SPY.N | 01/02/2010 | 109.06 | 1000 | 9.17 | 232.48 | $25,354.26 |
25 | SPY.N | 01/03/2010 | 111.89 | 1000 | 8.94 | 241.42 | $27,012.18 |
26 | SPY.N | 31/03/2010 | 117 | 1000 | 8.55 | 249.96 | $29,245.82 |
27 | SPY.N | 03/05/2010 | 120.35 | 1000 | 8.31 | 258.27 | $31,083.20 |
28 | SPY.N | 01/06/2010 | 107.53 | 1000 | 9.30 | 267.57 | $28,772.14 |
29 | SPY.N | 01/07/2010 | 102.76 | 1000 | 9.73 | 277.30 | $28,495.82 |
30 | SPY.N | 02/08/2010 | 112.76 | 1000 | 8.87 | 286.17 | $32,268.86 |
31 | SPY.N | 01/09/2010 | 108.46 | 1000 | 9.22 | 295.39 | $32,038.32 |
32 | SPY.N | 01/10/2010 | 114.61 | 1000 | 8.73 | 304.12 | $34,854.98 |
33 | SPY.N | 01/11/2010 | 118.53 | 1000 | 8.44 | 312.55 | $37,047.13 |
34 | SPY.N | 01/12/2010 | 121.01 | 1000 | 8.26 | 320.82 | $38,822.26 |
35 | SPY.N | 03/01/2011 | 127.43 | 1000 | 7.85 | 328.67 | $41,881.92 |
36 | SPY.N | 01/02/2011 | 130.74 | 1000 | 7.65 | 336.31 | $43,969.80 |
37 | SPY.N | 01/03/2011 | 130.93 | 1000 | 7.64 | 343.95 | $45,033.70 |
38 | SPY.N | 01/04/2011 | 133.15 | 1000 | 7.51 | 351.46 | $46,797.28 |
39 | SPY.N | 02/05/2011 | 136.22 | 1000 | 7.34 | 358.80 | $48,876.27 |
40 | SPY.N | 01/06/2011 | 131.87 | 1000 | 7.58 | 366.39 | $48,315.47 |
41 | SPY.N | 01/07/2011 | 133.92 | 1000 | 7.47 | 373.85 | $50,066.57 |
42 | SPY.N | 01/08/2011 | 128.78 | 1000 | 7.77 | 381.62 | $49,144.96 |
43 | SPY.N | 01/09/2011 | 120.94 | 1000 | 8.27 | 389.89 | $47,153.06 |
44 | SPY.N | 03/10/2011 | 109.93 | 1000 | 9.10 | 398.98 | $43,860.39 |
45 | SPY.N | 01/11/2011 | 122 | 1000 | 8.20 | 407.18 | $49,676.14 |
46 | SPY.N | 01/12/2011 | 124.97 | 1000 | 8.00 | 415.18 | $51,885.47 |
47 | SPY.N | 03/01/2012 | 127.5 | 1000 | 7.84 | 423.03 | $53,935.88 |
48 | SPY.N | 01/02/2012 | 132.47 | 1000 | 7.55 | 430.58 | $57,038.32 |
49 | SPY.N | 01/03/2012 | 137.73 | 1000 | 7.26 | 437.84 | $60,303.15 |
50 | SPY.N | 02/04/2012 | 141.84 | 1000 | 7.05 | 444.89 | $63,102.65 |
51 | SPY.N | 01/05/2012 | 140.74 | 1000 | 7.11 | 451.99 | $63,613.28 |
52 | SPY.N | 01/06/2012 | 128.16 | 1000 | 7.80 | 459.79 | $58,927.23 |
53 | SPY.N | 02/07/2012 | 136.51 | 1000 | 7.33 | 467.12 | $63,766.51 |
54 | SPY.N | 01/08/2012 | 137.59 | 1000 | 7.27 | 474.39 | $65,271.00 |
55 | SPY.N | 04/09/2012 | 141.03 | 1000 | 7.09 | 481.48 | $67,902.89 |
56 | SPY.N | 01/10/2012 | 144.34 | 1000 | 6.93 | 488.41 | $70,496.58 |
57 | SPY.N | 01/11/2012 | 142.83 | 1000 | 7.00 | 495.41 | $70,759.09 |
58 | SPY.N | 03/12/2012 | 141.45 | 1000 | 7.07 | 502.48 | $71,075.43 |
59 | SPY.N | 02/01/2013 | 146.06 | 1000 | 6.85 | 509.32 | $74,391.85 |
60 | SPY.N | 01/02/2013 | 151.16 | 1000 | 6.62 | 515.94 | $77,989.40 |
61 | SPY.N | 28/02/2013 | 151.61 | 0 | 0.00 | 515.94 | $78,221.57 |
El "Dollar Cost Average" mejorado es simplemente añadirle la regla que se dobla la inversión mensual cuando el precio está un 20% más bajo que el precio inicial. El rendimiento pasa a ser en estos 5 años del 37,34%:
Fecha | Precio | Var % | Inversión | Inv. acumulada | Ac. compradas | Ac. cartera | Valor inversión |
03/03/2008 | 133.5 | 1 | $1,000.00 | $1,000.00 | 7.49 | 7.49 | $1,000.00 |
01/04/2008 | 136.61 | 2.33% | $1,000.00 | $2,000.00 | 7.32 | 14.81 | $2,023.30 |
01/05/2008 | 141.12 | 3.30% | $1,000.00 | $3,000.00 | 7.09 | 21.90 | $3,090.09 |
02/06/2008 | 138.9 | 1.68% | $1,000.00 | $4,000.00 | 7.20 | 29.10 | $4,041.48 |
01/07/2008 | 128.38 | -6.02% | $1,000.00 | $5,000.00 | 7.79 | 36.89 | $4,735.39 |
01/08/2008 | 126.16 | -7.65% | $1,000.00 | $6,000.00 | 7.93 | 44.81 | $5,653.50 |
01/09/2008 | 128.79 | -5.72% | $1,000.00 | $7,000.00 | 7.76 | 52.58 | $6,771.36 |
01/10/2008 | 116.06 | -15.04% | $1,000.00 | $8,000.00 | 8.62 | 61.19 | $7,102.06 |
03/11/2008 | 97.11 | -28.91% | $2,000.00 | $10,000.00 | 20.60 | 81.79 | $7,942.45 |
01/12/2008 | 82.11 | -39.89% | $2,000.00 | $12,000.00 | 24.36 | 106.15 | $8,715.63 |
01/01/2009 | 90.24 | -33.94% | $2,000.00 | $14,000.00 | 22.16 | 128.31 | $11,578.59 |
02/02/2009 | 82.58 | -39.55% | $2,000.00 | $16,000.00 | 24.22 | 152.53 | $12,595.75 |
02/03/2009 | 70.6 | -48.32% | $2,000.00 | $18,000.00 | 28.33 | 180.86 | $12,768.46 |
01/04/2009 | 81.06 | -40.66% | $2,000.00 | $20,000.00 | 24.67 | 205.53 | $16,660.22 |
01/05/2009 | 87.89 | -35.66% | $2,000.00 | $22,000.00 | 22.76 | 228.29 | $20,063.99 |
01/06/2009 | 94.77 | -30.63% | $2,000.00 | $24,000.00 | 21.10 | 249.39 | $23,634.59 |
01/07/2009 | 92.33 | -32.41% | $2,000.00 | $26,000.00 | 21.66 | 271.05 | $25,026.08 |
03/08/2009 | 100.44 | -26.48% | $2,000.00 | $28,000.00 | 19.91 | 290.96 | $29,224.30 |
01/09/2009 | 100.2 | -26.65% | $2,000.00 | $30,000.00 | 19.96 | 310.92 | $31,154.47 |
01/10/2009 | 103 | -24.60% | $2,000.00 | $32,000.00 | 19.42 | 330.34 | $34,025.05 |
02/11/2009 | 104.32 | -23.64% | $2,000.00 | $34,000.00 | 19.17 | 349.51 | $36,461.10 |
01/12/2009 | 111.3 | -18.53% | $1,000.00 | $35,000.00 | 8.98 | 358.50 | $39,900.69 |
01/01/2010 | 111.44 | -18.42% | $1,000.00 | $36,000.00 | 8.97 | 367.47 | $40,950.88 |
01/02/2010 | 109.06 | -20.17% | $2,000.00 | $38,000.00 | 18.34 | 385.81 | $42,076.31 |
01/03/2010 | 111.89 | -18.10% | $1,000.00 | $39,000.00 | 8.94 | 394.75 | $44,168.14 |
31/03/2010 | 117 | -14.35% | $1,000.00 | $40,000.00 | 8.55 | 403.29 | $47,185.30 |
03/05/2010 | 120.35 | -11.90% | $1,000.00 | $41,000.00 | 8.31 | 411.60 | $49,536.33 |
01/06/2010 | 107.53 | -21.29% | $2,000.00 | $43,000.00 | 18.60 | 430.20 | $46,259.59 |
01/07/2010 | 102.76 | -24.78% | $2,000.00 | $45,000.00 | 19.46 | 449.66 | $46,207.53 |
02/08/2010 | 112.76 | -17.46% | $1,000.00 | $46,000.00 | 8.87 | 458.53 | $51,704.17 |
01/09/2010 | 108.46 | -20.61% | $2,000.00 | $48,000.00 | 18.44 | 476.97 | $51,732.48 |
01/10/2010 | 114.61 | -16.10% | $1,000.00 | $49,000.00 | 8.73 | 485.70 | $55,665.86 |
01/11/2010 | 118.53 | -13.23% | $1,000.00 | $50,000.00 | 8.44 | 494.13 | $58,569.80 |
01/12/2010 | 121.01 | -11.42% | $1,000.00 | $51,000.00 | 8.26 | 502.40 | $60,795.25 |
03/01/2011 | 127.43 | -6.72% | $1,000.00 | $52,000.00 | 7.85 | 510.25 | $65,020.65 |
01/02/2011 | 130.74 | -4.30% | $1,000.00 | $53,000.00 | 7.65 | 517.89 | $67,709.57 |
01/03/2011 | 130.93 | -4.16% | $1,000.00 | $54,000.00 | 7.64 | 525.53 | $68,807.97 |
01/04/2011 | 133.15 | -2.53% | $1,000.00 | $55,000.00 | 7.51 | 533.04 | $70,974.65 |
02/05/2011 | 136.22 | -0.29% | $1,000.00 | $56,000.00 | 7.34 | 540.38 | $73,611.09 |
01/06/2011 | 131.87 | -3.47% | $1,000.00 | $57,000.00 | 7.58 | 547.97 | $72,260.42 |
01/07/2011 | 133.92 | -1.97% | $1,000.00 | $58,000.00 | 7.47 | 555.43 | $74,383.75 |
01/08/2011 | 128.78 | -5.73% | $1,000.00 | $59,000.00 | 7.77 | 563.20 | $72,528.82 |
01/09/2011 | 120.94 | -11.47% | $1,000.00 | $60,000.00 | 8.27 | 571.47 | $69,113.34 |
03/10/2011 | 109.93 | -19.53% | $1,000.00 | $61,000.00 | 9.10 | 580.56 | $63,821.48 |
01/11/2011 | 122 | -10.69% | $1,000.00 | $62,000.00 | 8.20 | 588.76 | $71,828.89 |
01/12/2011 | 124.97 | -8.52% | $1,000.00 | $63,000.00 | 8.00 | 596.76 | $74,577.51 |
03/01/2012 | 127.5 | -6.67% | $1,000.00 | $64,000.00 | 7.84 | 604.61 | $77,087.32 |
01/02/2012 | 132.47 | -3.03% | $1,000.00 | $65,000.00 | 7.55 | 612.16 | $81,092.22 |
01/03/2012 | 137.73 | 0.82% | $1,000.00 | $66,000.00 | 7.26 | 619.42 | $85,312.16 |
02/04/2012 | 141.84 | 3.83% | $1,000.00 | $67,000.00 | 7.05 | 626.47 | $88,857.95 |
01/05/2012 | 140.74 | 3.02% | $1,000.00 | $68,000.00 | 7.11 | 633.57 | $89,168.84 |
01/06/2012 | 128.16 | -6.19% | $1,000.00 | $69,000.00 | 7.80 | 641.37 | $82,198.51 |
02/07/2012 | 136.51 | -0.07% | $1,000.00 | $70,000.00 | 7.33 | 648.70 | $88,553.99 |
01/08/2012 | 137.59 | 0.72% | $1,000.00 | $71,000.00 | 7.27 | 655.97 | $90,254.58 |
04/09/2012 | 141.03 | 3.24% | $1,000.00 | $72,000.00 | 7.09 | 663.06 | $93,511.11 |
01/10/2012 | 144.34 | 5.66% | $1,000.00 | $73,000.00 | 6.93 | 669.99 | $96,705.83 |
01/11/2012 | 142.83 | 4.55% | $1,000.00 | $74,000.00 | 7.00 | 676.99 | $96,694.16 |
03/12/2012 | 141.45 | 3.54% | $1,000.00 | $75,000.00 | 7.07 | 684.06 | $96,759.91 |
02/01/2013 | 146.06 | 6.92% | $1,000.00 | $76,000.00 | 6.85 | 690.90 | $100,913.42 |
01/02/2013 | 151.16 | 10.65% | $1,000.00 | $77,000.00 | 6.62 | 697.52 | $105,437.03 |
28/02/2013 | 151.61 | 10.98% | 0 | $77,000.00 | 0.00 | 697.52 | $105,750.91 |
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